Abstract:Based on the economic and ecological value of macroalgae, the recruitment of new cultivated species with potential is necessary for the healthy development of the seaweed cultivation industry. Costaria costata is a brown alga with high nutritional and economic value. This natural seaweed resource is not found in China. In this study, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to predict the suitability and potential invasion risk of C. costata in China and explore the influence of different factors on the growth of sporophyte, to support the cultivation of C. costata. The prediction model of C. costata distribution was constructed based on correlation analysis between environmental factors, a selection of the global natural distribution points of C. costata, screening of the regulation parameter, and the ratio of the training set to test set on the prediction performance of the model. Results showed that the model performed the best when the regularization parameter was 1 and the ratio of training set to testing set was 70 : 30. The prediction model for C. costata distribution was constructed by eight environmental factors based on the correlation of environmental factors and model contribution rate. Among them, the temperature and light intensity had the most significant influence on the natural distribution. When the light intensity was not less than 4 μmol/(m2 ·s), the annual variation was 52 μmol/(m2 ·s), the monthly mean temperature was not less than 7 ℃, and the annual variation was 27 ℃, indicating the high suitable distribution probability of C. costata. The model showed that the suitable areas of C. costata in China were primarily distributed in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, accounting for 11.32% of the total sea area; among which the marginal biogenic areas of C. costata in Yellow and Bohai Sea are primarily distributed in the coastal areas of Liaodong Bay, the northern coastal areas of Bohai Bay, and the coastal areas from Qingdao to Lianyungang, accounting for 2.99% of the total sea area. The low adaptable areas are primarily distributed in the coastal area of Liaodong Bay, the coastal area of Dalian, and the coastal area of Shandong Peninsula, accounting for 5.09% of the total sea area. The middle adaptable areas are primarily distributed in the southwest coastal area of Liaodong Bay, accounting for 1.33% of the total sea area. The high suitability areas are primarily distributed in the northern and southern coastal area of Liaodong Bay, accounting for 1.91% of the total sea area. The single-factor growth experiment results showed that, when the temperature was 10 ℃, the light intensity was 60 μmol/(m2 ·s), the salinity was 36, the nitrate was 1 mg/L, and the phosphate was 0.1 mg/L, indicating the highly relative growth rate of C. costata sporophyte. Combined with the field investigation, C. costata was found on the floating shelf in Changdao Island in Yantai and Longwangtong Bay in Dalian, consistent with the predicted results. This study showed that the coastal areas of Liaodong Bay, Dalian, and Shandong Peninsula are suitable areas for the introduction and cultivation of C. costata. However, attention should be paid to the risk of high invasion in the northern and southern coastal areas of Liaodong Bay. If artificial cultivation is performed, ecological safety assessment should be strengthened.