The sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus) is an important aquaculture species in northern China. As a typical temperate species, the sea cucumber is very sensitive to high temperatures. When the ambient temperature exceeds the upper thermal tolerance limit of the species, a series of complex physiological responses can be induced, some leading to large-scale death. High temperature and marine heat waves in the summer are environmental factors that are known to damage the sea cucumber pond aquaculture. For evaluating and predicting the effect of high temperature on sea cucumber pond aquaculture and selecting suitable aquaculture areas, hourly summer temperature data (July to August) in 2011–2020 were collected, and the 99th percentile high temperature value (T₉₉) of each grid point was defined as the intensity of extreme high temperature in each year. The relationship reported in the literature between temperature and survival rate, as a physiological proxy of the sea cucumber, was calculated by using a three-parameter logistic model. Based on the calculated relationship between temperature and survival rates, the semi-lethal high temperature of the sea cucumber was found to be (31.7±0.15) ℃. Ambient temperature higher than 31.7 ℃ was defined as disaster-causing temperature. The vulnerable areas of sea cucumber pond aquaculture to high temperature were ranked based on the disaster-causing event frequency. Areas of risk in aquaculture ponds under three representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were identified based on the predicted survival rate of sea cucumbers from 2046 to 2050. The results showed that the average temperature (1.27 ℃/10 a) and the maximum temperature (2.15 ℃/10 a) increased in the coastal areas of northern China from 2011 to 2020, and the sea cucumber pond aquaculture areas in northern China, particularly in the southwest Bohai Sea, encountered disaster-causing temperatures frequently. The total frequency of disaster-causing events has shown a clear increasing trend from 2011 to 2018, and the number of affected areas have also kept increasing, with 10% of areas for sea cucumber pond aquaculture suffering from disaster-causing temperatures in 2011, while more than 40% of the areas experienced disaster-causing temperatures in 2018. In 2019 and 2020, 20% of the pond aquaculture areas suffered from disaster-causing temperatures. High frequency of disaster-causing events mainly occurred in the southwest of Bohai Sea and in the Liaodong Bay. Under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, T₉₉ will continue to rise in most coastal areas in northern China where temperatures can reach 40 ℃ in some regions. Under the impacts of global warming, those previously appropriate aquaculture areas would possibly no longer be suitable for the culture of sea cucumbers, and the risk from exposure to high temperatures will increase throughout the bays of Bohai Sea. The present study implies that sea cucumber pond aquaculture in China has been sensitive to high temperatures in the past and will be even more vulnerable to much higher temperatures in the future. Therefore, in the context of global warming, there is an urgent need for heat risk assessment models on micro-scale or meso-scale for the sustainable development of aquaculture. In conclusion, the local temperature conditions need to be fully considered in the development of sea cucumber pond aquaculture, and an adaptative management plan needs to be established for coping with increasing temperatures in the future.