基于HMSC模型的广东近海鱼类环境适应性与种间关系分析
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作者单位:

1.中国水产科学研究院南海水产研究所, 广东 广州 510300 ;2.上海海洋大学水产与生命学院, 上海 201306 ;3.农业农村部外海渔业可持续利用重点实验室, 广东 广州 510300 ;4.广东省渔业生态与环境重点实验室, 广东 广州 510300

作者简介:

张峻溢(2000-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为海洋鱼类生活和分布.E-mail:zjy20241029@163.com

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中图分类号:

S931

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFD2400400); 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2025A1515011979); 中国水产科学研究院南海水产研究所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2025RC01)


Analysis of environmental adaptability and interspecific relationships of fish species in Guangdong coastal waters based on HMSC model
Author:
Affiliation:

1.South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300 , China ;2.College of Fisheries and Life Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306 , China ;3.Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Open–sea Fishery, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Guangzhou 510300 , China ;4.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Fishery Ecology and Environment, Guangzhou 510300 , China

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    摘要:

    海洋鱼类分布与环境因子之间的关系一直是海洋生态学领域的研究热点。群落层次模型(HMSC)是一种基于贝叶斯统计的多元分层广义线性混合效应模型, 可以分析环境、种间关系和系统发育对物种分布的影响。为探究广东近海鱼类的环境适应性和种间关系, 基于 2018、2019、2020 和 2022 年 4 个春季航次底拖网调查数据, 结合水深、表层盐度、底层温度等相关环境因子构建了 5 种 HMSC。研究结果表明, 包含随机效应的模型 1 表现最优, 对高营养级捕食者的拟合效果明显提升。水深是影响广东近海鱼类分布的关键因素, 能够解释鱼类分布的 62.1%; 底层温度和表层盐度的解释力较弱, 仅占 3.5%和 3.3%。鱼类种群之间关系大致可分为 2 组: 一组与其他鱼类多呈正相关, 另一组与其他鱼类多呈负相关。这些发现强调了水深和种间关系对广东近海鱼类分布具有重要影响, 为广东近海鱼类资源管理及物种多样性保护提供了理论依据。

    Abstract:

    The relationships between the distribution of marine fish and environmental factors have long been a focal point in marine ecology research. The hierarchical multispecies community model (HMSC), a multivariate hierarchical generalized linear mixed-effects model grounded in Bayesian statistics, enables simultaneous analysis of how environmental conditions, interspecific relationships, and phylogeny influence species distribution patterns. To investigate the environmental adaptability of fish species and their interspecific interactions in the coastal waters of Guangdong, we constructed five HMSC models. These models were developed using fisheries independent data from bottom trawl surveys conducted during four spring cruises in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022, and related environmental data on water depth, surface salinity, and surface temperature. The research results showed models with random effects fit the data better than those without random effects. The introduction of random effects enables the models to detect hidden variables that have not been observed yet, thereby improving the models' ability to fit complex ecological relationships. However, during the cross-validation process, these hidden variables could not be accurately estimated. As a result, the prediced R2 values of models without random effects were close to those of models with random effects. In particular, when random effects were added to the models related to predators at higher trophic levels, the model fit improved considerably. This indicates that interspecific relationships have a remarkable effect on the distribution of predators. Water depth is a crucial factor affecting the distribution of fish in the coastal waters of Guangdong, accounting for 62.1% of the variance in fish distribution. Moreover, most fish species exhibited nonlinear relationships with water depth. Changes in water depth often triggered a series of chain reactions in related factors such as temperature and salinity. The explanatory powers of surface temperature and surface salinity were relatively weak, accounting for only 3.5% and 3.3% of the variance, respectively. This might be due to the limitation of the survey time, as the environmental impacts on fish vary across different seasons. The random effects of some fish species had a relatively high explanatory rate. This suggests that, in addition to being influenced by water depth, surface temperature, and surface salinity, the distribution and survival of these fish species might also be affected by other potential factors. The relationships among fish populations could be broadly classified into two distinct groups. The first group of fish species predominantly exhibited positive correlations with other species. These fish were mostly small in size and inhabited the bottom or near-bottom layers of the water column. Their similar spatial distributions and comparable body sizes likely contributed to the significant positive associations observed among them. This suggests that shared ecological niches and habitat preferences play a crucial role in fostering co-occurrence patterns within this group. In contrast, the second group of fish species showed predominantly negative correlations with others. This phenomenon was likely linked to their positions in the food chains. Some species within this group occupied lower trophic levels, making them prey for a wide range of other fish, while others were higher-level predators. Such trophic interactions, whether as prey or predator, created competitive or predatory relationships that lead to negative correlations in their distributions. These findings underscore the inadequacy of relying solely on individual environmental factors to explain fish distribution patterns. Instead, both water depth and interspecific relationships emerge as key determinants of fish distribution in the coastal waters of Guangdong. Water depth influences various environmental conditions, while interspecific interactions shape the co-existence and distribution of species. Overall, the results of this study provide essential theoretical insights and empirical data that can inform the sustainable management of fish resources and the conservation of marine ecosystems in the coastal waters of Guangdong.

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张峻溢,蔡研聪,李佳俊,许友伟,孙铭帅,陈作志,张魁.基于HMSC模型的广东近海鱼类环境适应性与种间关系分析[J].中国水产科学,2025,32(7):949-959
ZHANG Junyi, CAI Yancong, LI Jiajun, XU Youwei, SUN Mingshuai, CHEN Zuozhi, ZHANG Kui. Analysis of environmental adaptability and interspecific relationships of fish species in Guangdong coastal waters based on HMSC model[J]. Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2025,32(7):949-959

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-10
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