Abstract:The Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) purse seine fishery is an important part of Chinese oceanic fisheries. Forecasting the gravity center of a fishing ground with strong interannual change has become increasingly urgent. This study examined the relationship between a purse seine fishing ground, based on the 2011-2014 purse seine log sheet of the Shanghai Kaichuang Fishery Company, and the synchronous oceanic datasets such as Niño3.4 index, and the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project (TAO). The latter data set provided sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface wind (SSW). Data were analyzed using the time-lagged correlation method. We identified fishing ground variation induced by oceanic change, and the fields suitable for forecasting the fishing ground, along with their time-lagged number. A regression model was built and verified in this paper. A clear relationship between the fishing ground with SSW and SST was shown in the monthly maps of oceanic fields and fishing ground gravity centers for 2011-2014. In time-lagged correlation analysis results:(1) the correlation coefficient between the longitude of the gravity center with the mean zonal SSW anomaly of 180°E(UA_180), the UA of 165°E (UA_165), the meridian SSW anomaly of 180°E(VA_180), the VA of 165°E (VA_165), the 29℃ SST isothermal longitude value (SST_29) and Niño3.4 index (Nino) was 0.79, 0.82, -0.54, -0.41, 0.75 and 0.47, respectively; and the lagged time was 1, 0, 2, 0, 0 and 0 months, respectively; (2) the correlation coefficient between the latitude of the gravity center with the UA of 180°E and 165°E was 0.55 and 0.63, respectively, and the lagged time was 2 and 1 months. The correlation coefficient with the VA_180 and VA_165 was negative and less than 0.5, and the lagged time was 2 months and synchronic. There was no significant relationship between Niño and the latitude position of the fishing ground. We found a regression equation of gravity longitude center (GC_Lon) and latitude center (GC_Lat):GC_Lon=137.534+2.36159UA_165, GC_Lat=0.236156+0.51587UA_165(; and the model R square was 0.72 and 0.34, respectively. The longitude gravity center was much more reasonable than that of the latitude. The error gap between the reality and the predictive value from the models was more than 2° in longitude and latitude, mainly because there were delays when no fishing was permitted in the fishing ground in the east WCPO in November and December 2014.The difference in the central fishing ground between the model results and the Shanghai Kaichuang Fishery Company log sheets were reasonable:the longitude was less than 0.5° and the latitude was about 1.5°. This paper presents clear evidence that the change in fishing grounds followed variations in SST and SSW, and we believe that the influence of the SSW has not been focused on in this way before. We also discovered that the zonal wind speed anomaly at 165°E and 180°E longitude had the same effective influence on the fishing ground as a 29℃ sea surface isotherm. These findings will advance related research into purse seine fishing grounds, and the forecasting models may assist purse seine companies in budgeting for their permitted fishing days.